Singularity Essay

As promised, here is my essay on what Ray Kurzweil thinks will occur in the future through his book, The Singularity is Near.

Gustavo Guerrero
Feburary 14, 2011
Stephanie Lytle
English 4

Guiding Question:  What do Kurzweil (and other futurists) predict about our future?

The future has always been speculated by humans.  In the 50’s, many people envisioned a future where there would be jetpacks, hovercars, and a lot of nuclear energy.  Others took a more pessimistic view, with government taking over like in George Orwell’s distopian novel 1984.  These claims were made, in general, with little idea of what would actually happen.  With Raymond Kurzweil’s The Singularity is  Near, Kurzweil outlines what he believes will happen with the future of humanity.  He predicts the “singularity” (where technology will advance in fantastic ways, so much that it’s impossible to predict) is coming, and going to arrive by 2045.  By using extensive data and reasoning, he presents what he thinks will occur with, among an innumerable amount of other things, what will happen with energy, the human body, and humanity as a whole.

Energy today is in dire straits.  Oil prices are fluctuating wildly, threatening to top $100 a barrel, skyrocketing gasoline prices to previously-unknown levels.  At the moment, almost all of our power comes from non-renewable sources.  Looking at the energy situation without taking into consideration the future, it seems that we will run out of oil and have a massive energy crisis.  Thankfully, humanity is not limited to this narrow view.  According to Kurzweil, solar power will become a predominant form of energy in the future.  He says that at the time of writing (in 2005), humans produce 14 trillion watts of power to power the world.  A whopping 78% of this comes from oil, coal, and gas, while nuclear makes up 7%, hydroelectric makes up 15%, and 0.5% comes from renewable sources (Kurzweil 243).  Thankfully, this dire prognosis is soon to be remedied, according to Kurzweil.  Referencing earlier graphs in his book that address the increasing power in technology while the price is rapidly dropping, Kurzweil predicts that “By 2030, the price-performance of computation and communication will increase by a factor of ten to one hundred million compared to today....Energy requirements will grow far more slowly than the capacity of technologies, however, because of greatly increased efficiencies in the use of energy” (Kurzweil 243).  He goes on to discuss how nanotechnology will revolutionize the energy industry, by capturing waste from factories, in the form of heat and other emissions.  The future holds these great advances not only for energy, but for our own bodies.

    It seems that although technology is rapidly advancing every day, the human body is unchanging.  While technology has been developed to augment the body, in the form of hearing aids, prosthetics, pacemakers, and other such medical devices, there have not been implants that can dramatically change the life expectancy of humans.  According to Kurzweil, however, this will change, very drastically.  In the near future, a few decades, nanotechnology will not only become extremely viable, but very inexpensive.  Kurzweil goes all-out in his ideas about the future of the human body, his ideas pretty much make humans become cyborgs.  The first idea he presents is that our current way of eating will become radically different, as the digestive system would be “redesigned”.  He proposes that “nanobots in the digestive tract and bloodstream will intelligently extract the precise nutrients we need, order additional nutrients and supplements...” (Kurzweil 303).  Kurzweil’s proposal is for an intermediate phase, before we completely flush out the need to eat at all.  Kurzweil goes past this small part of the body, explaining how we can program blood, and goes into one of the most fragile parts of the human body - the heart.  Kurzweil shows examples of scientists who have proposed replacing the heart completely, replacing everything with nanobots.  Kurzweil seems to become aware of the arguments against all of these radical changes, saying that we will pretty much become cyborgs, and he accepts this, as it will advance humanity even further.  After all of this, Kurzweil addresses the overarching question that arises while reading The Singularity - what becomes of humanity?   
           Kurzweil addresses what becomes of humanity as a whole in The Singularity.  Our population will grow at its current rate for at least another decade or so.  After that, the technological singularity begins to kick in and rev humanity into high gear.  By the time the singularity hits around 2045, humanity’s population will have stabilized, with advances in technology, we will be able to conduct space travel.  Come 2045, technology will become exponentially more intelligent, with artificial intelligence (AI) becoming prevalent in our culture.  Humans will become immortal, in a sense.  Thanks to advances in medical technology, death by old age, disease, and other natural causes will be eradicated.  People will still die from accidents, war, etc., but for the most part, people will be able to live for a very long time and be able to reverse the effects of aging.  “Human life expectancy is itself growing steadily and will accelerate rapidly, now that we are in the early stages of reverse engineering the information processes underlying life and disease” (Kurzweil 323).A lot of this hinges on the success of nanotechnology - if nanobots become as prevalent as Kurzweil predicts, the world will be a much different, and ultimately, better place.
    The future is bright, if Kurzweil is right.  His predictions of the future seem extremely well-grounded, he backs up his claims with countless sources.  The future of energy doesn't seem as bleak anymore, as does dying.  In fact, by the time I’m in 2045, I could live forever.  This is what one man believes will occur in our future, and after reading his book, I have significant reason to believe a lot of what he says.  The only problem about these kinds of books is that there is no way to tell, except to wait until the fabled year 2045.