Second Singularity Inquiry Essay

Here's my second Singularity essay, focusing on the book Future Shock.  I hope you enjoy it!

Gustavo Guerrero
March 14, 2011
English 4
Stephanie Lytle

Inquiry Essay 2

The future holds many secrets, and only time will reveal them.  That sentiment, however, has not stopped a slew of people from thinking about what the future holds.  When starting this inquiry project, a group of peers and I were involved in studying the theory of The Singularity, where in the future technological growth becomes extremely progressive.  From studies of that, we have delved into different theories and studies about what the future could hold.  We based our inquiry project on the question of “What do futurists predict about our future?”  We started our study with the book that we were already studying, The Singularity is Near.  After that book, we have dove into a book called Future Shock, written by Alvin Toffler.  Future Shock is a book about how the rate of change is affecting people worldwide – in 1970.  This immediately attracted my attention – the book was written in the 70’s, yet it holds many similar ideas as the books released in the past decade.  Future Shock deals with a phenomenon that Toffler calls Future Shock – what he terms as “the shattering stress and disorientation that we induce in individuals by subjecting them to too much change in a short a time” (Toffler 2).  Inside the book, Toffler explores how the rapid rate of change is affecting the world and the impact of global events and how the rapid rate of change is transforming technology forever.

Toffler brings the example of how rapid globalism has broken our boundaries, especially compared with the past.  With the advent of such technologies such as the radio, the world suddenly gets much smaller.  Toffler explains how events that, in the past the impact of a war was mostly contained to the country in which it occurred, now, it has a ripple effect across the globe.  When he wrote the book in 1970, he spoke about Vietnam, saying that “A war in Vietnam alters basic political alignments in Peking, Moscow, and Washington, touches off protests in Stockholm, affects financial transactions in Zurich, triggers secret diplomatic moves in Algiers” (Toffler 16).  He also notes that in addition to current events affecting us; past events that changed a country’s ideas affect the modern world in small ways.  This observation does not directly answer about what will happen in the future today.  However, Toffler predicts that the world is only going to get more and more interwoven, from the viewpoint of a man in 1970.  Looking at the world today, especially with context to the recent upheaval in the Middle East and the direct impact of that on the stock market, it becomes clear that Toffler’s predictions in that sense have come true.  His predictions seem like they still apply today as well – with the advent of social networking, the world is more interwoven than ever before.  This is not the only example of Alvin Toffler’s ideas passing on into the next age, however.  Toffler also explores what sounds similar to Raymond Kurzweil’s Law of Accelerating Returns, where technology becomes exponentially cheaper and powerful as time progresses.

In Toffler’s words, “Technology feeds on itself” (Toffler 26).  Toffler goes into what he thinks the future will bring in the form of technology, much like Kurzweil does 30-some years later.  Toffler makes several notes throughout the book about how technology has slowly advanced until the Industrial Revolution, where it began increasing exponentially.  Toffler focuses on the example of transportation when he talks about what he calls “Accelerative Thrust”.  He compares the breaking of the 100 mph barrier in 1880, then states that “it took fifty-eight years, however, to quadruple the limit….man was cracking the 400-mph line” (Toffler 26).  Toffler’s ideas about this recurs throughout the book, and I think it’s important to note the similarities that this theory has to current ones, and that his ideas still are in full function today.

Future Shock has been a great help to my studies on the future.  It has provided viewpoints of a time not too long ago by years, but ages technology-wise.  Future Shock has presented many ideas that still hold firm, even though it was published over 30 years ago.  With the ideas of Future Shock combined with the more data-rich studies found in The Singularity is Near, I am getting a better idea of what technology in the future will look like, or at  least what path it will follow.  Future Shock complements The Singularity is Near by providing even more proof that The Law of Accelerating Returns is fact, showing that technology gets more powerful every year.  With the knowledge of these two books in hand, I should be able to read my last book and develop an extremely well-rounded idea of what the future should bring.  Then, I can reflect on this in five, ten, twenty years and see what’s actually happened.             

   

Retell, Respond, Relate: Pages 50-100 of Future Shock

Retell

The second set of 50 pages in Alvin Toffler's Future Shock  focus on how society has changed in the past few centuries.  One of his main observations is that we have become a "Throw-Away" society.  He says that we are used to the world having things replaced constantly, this is mostly because of lowering costs of items - it almost is cheaper, at the time of the book, to buy some items new rather than have the old ones repaired.  A very prominent example of this whole feeling is when the author talks about his daughter, who looked for the drugstore and couldn't find it, saying it "must have been torn down".  The author contrasts what he would have assumed, in his time, stores didn't close down that fast, it wasn't natural.   

Respond

This second reading session I have done really shows how society has been the way it is for some time, or at least has been evolving to become this way.  This reading was extremely interesting, although a bit disturbing in his ideas of how far our ideas of "throwing away" have gone.

Relate

I can relate this now to two things - the first is my previous reading, The Singularity is Near.  Both books observe how fast society has changed, and the consequences that brings.  I can also relate this to my life - I see this "Throw-Away" society every day, some things are just cheaper to keep buying rather than reusing.  It's going to be extremely interesting to see how this book progresses.

Future Shock - Retell, Respond, Relate - The First 50 Pages

Here's my Retell, Respond, and Relate for Future Shock.

Retell
The first 50 pages of Alvin Toffler's Future Shock is an mostly an introduction to his theories and ideas, as well as a ton of facts about humanity.  Toffler notes how humanity has achieved greater things in shorter amounts of time, he uses the printing press and speed records as examples.  "The first steam engine, introduced in 1825 could muster a top speed of only 13 mph...by the 1960's rocket planes approached speeds of 4000 mph" (Toffler 26).  He also talks about the expanding footprint of humanity on the planet, citing that the amount of cities with over 1 million people has skyrocketed in the last century.
Respond
I really am liking this reading.  It's not as hard-core scientific as some other books I've been reading, the author is clearly intending this for a more broad audience.  His comparisons really highlight the progress of humanity, and even though I'm only 50 or so pages in, I'm excited for what else he will bring to the table.  He discusses amazing ideas, such as subterranean cities in areas that are already populated.  The thing that really amazes me, however, is that this was written in the 1970's.
Relate
I can easily relate this to the other readings I have done for this project, most notably The Singularity is Near by Raymond Kurzweil.  The fact that the same ideas have been present for a while, excluding their obvious evolution in eloquence and depth of data is really interesting.  The author discusses Kurzweil's Law of Accelerating returns, not with the same name, but the same ideas are still there.  I hope to see more similarities and differences as I delve further into the book.

Twelfth Night

This week, our class did an in-depth analysis and acted out Twelfth Night.  We've been through Act 1, and are moving on to Act 2 next week.  I already have seen the play a few times, so I know what happens and how it works.  I like acting it out, though that takes a long time.  I feel that this helps us understand the workings of the play more.

For my inquiry project, I am going to read Future Shock as soon as it arrives to Borders (the 28th or so).

Singularity Essay

As promised, here is my essay on what Ray Kurzweil thinks will occur in the future through his book, The Singularity is Near.

Gustavo Guerrero
Feburary 14, 2011
Stephanie Lytle
English 4

Guiding Question:  What do Kurzweil (and other futurists) predict about our future?

The future has always been speculated by humans.  In the 50’s, many people envisioned a future where there would be jetpacks, hovercars, and a lot of nuclear energy.  Others took a more pessimistic view, with government taking over like in George Orwell’s distopian novel 1984.  These claims were made, in general, with little idea of what would actually happen.  With Raymond Kurzweil’s The Singularity is  Near, Kurzweil outlines what he believes will happen with the future of humanity.  He predicts the “singularity” (where technology will advance in fantastic ways, so much that it’s impossible to predict) is coming, and going to arrive by 2045.  By using extensive data and reasoning, he presents what he thinks will occur with, among an innumerable amount of other things, what will happen with energy, the human body, and humanity as a whole.

Energy today is in dire straits.  Oil prices are fluctuating wildly, threatening to top $100 a barrel, skyrocketing gasoline prices to previously-unknown levels.  At the moment, almost all of our power comes from non-renewable sources.  Looking at the energy situation without taking into consideration the future, it seems that we will run out of oil and have a massive energy crisis.  Thankfully, humanity is not limited to this narrow view.  According to Kurzweil, solar power will become a predominant form of energy in the future.  He says that at the time of writing (in 2005), humans produce 14 trillion watts of power to power the world.  A whopping 78% of this comes from oil, coal, and gas, while nuclear makes up 7%, hydroelectric makes up 15%, and 0.5% comes from renewable sources (Kurzweil 243).  Thankfully, this dire prognosis is soon to be remedied, according to Kurzweil.  Referencing earlier graphs in his book that address the increasing power in technology while the price is rapidly dropping, Kurzweil predicts that “By 2030, the price-performance of computation and communication will increase by a factor of ten to one hundred million compared to today....Energy requirements will grow far more slowly than the capacity of technologies, however, because of greatly increased efficiencies in the use of energy” (Kurzweil 243).  He goes on to discuss how nanotechnology will revolutionize the energy industry, by capturing waste from factories, in the form of heat and other emissions.  The future holds these great advances not only for energy, but for our own bodies.

    It seems that although technology is rapidly advancing every day, the human body is unchanging.  While technology has been developed to augment the body, in the form of hearing aids, prosthetics, pacemakers, and other such medical devices, there have not been implants that can dramatically change the life expectancy of humans.  According to Kurzweil, however, this will change, very drastically.  In the near future, a few decades, nanotechnology will not only become extremely viable, but very inexpensive.  Kurzweil goes all-out in his ideas about the future of the human body, his ideas pretty much make humans become cyborgs.  The first idea he presents is that our current way of eating will become radically different, as the digestive system would be “redesigned”.  He proposes that “nanobots in the digestive tract and bloodstream will intelligently extract the precise nutrients we need, order additional nutrients and supplements...” (Kurzweil 303).  Kurzweil’s proposal is for an intermediate phase, before we completely flush out the need to eat at all.  Kurzweil goes past this small part of the body, explaining how we can program blood, and goes into one of the most fragile parts of the human body - the heart.  Kurzweil shows examples of scientists who have proposed replacing the heart completely, replacing everything with nanobots.  Kurzweil seems to become aware of the arguments against all of these radical changes, saying that we will pretty much become cyborgs, and he accepts this, as it will advance humanity even further.  After all of this, Kurzweil addresses the overarching question that arises while reading The Singularity - what becomes of humanity?   
           Kurzweil addresses what becomes of humanity as a whole in The Singularity.  Our population will grow at its current rate for at least another decade or so.  After that, the technological singularity begins to kick in and rev humanity into high gear.  By the time the singularity hits around 2045, humanity’s population will have stabilized, with advances in technology, we will be able to conduct space travel.  Come 2045, technology will become exponentially more intelligent, with artificial intelligence (AI) becoming prevalent in our culture.  Humans will become immortal, in a sense.  Thanks to advances in medical technology, death by old age, disease, and other natural causes will be eradicated.  People will still die from accidents, war, etc., but for the most part, people will be able to live for a very long time and be able to reverse the effects of aging.  “Human life expectancy is itself growing steadily and will accelerate rapidly, now that we are in the early stages of reverse engineering the information processes underlying life and disease” (Kurzweil 323).A lot of this hinges on the success of nanotechnology - if nanobots become as prevalent as Kurzweil predicts, the world will be a much different, and ultimately, better place.
    The future is bright, if Kurzweil is right.  His predictions of the future seem extremely well-grounded, he backs up his claims with countless sources.  The future of energy doesn't seem as bleak anymore, as does dying.  In fact, by the time I’m in 2045, I could live forever.  This is what one man believes will occur in our future, and after reading his book, I have significant reason to believe a lot of what he says.  The only problem about these kinds of books is that there is no way to tell, except to wait until the fabled year 2045.
   

Emma and Finishing the Singularity

This week, my grade went and saw the musical Emma at the Old Globe Theater in Balboa Park.  It was an very enjoyable performance, although the story's conclusion was easy to figure out.  The audience was really into it, which was enjoyable to see.  Later in the week, I read more of The Singularity, which I am almost done writing.  When I am, I will post my essay concerning The Singularity on this blog, so stay tuned!

Retell, Respond, Relate: Pages 1-100 of The Singularity is Near

This week, I read The Singularity is Near by Ray Kurzweil, and wrote two Read, Retell, and Respond works about it.  You can find them below.

Pages 1-50 of The Singularity is Near:

Retell:  In the first 50 pages of The Singularity is Near, Raymond Kurzweil begins by explaining his back story and how he came to become an inventor and develop his ideas about the Singularity.  He then compares the magic in the book series Harry Potter to how in the future, we will be able to duplicate this.  In the first 50 pages he speaks about how technology is accelerating at an exponential pace, backing up his claims with various graphs showing the current slope of technological growth.  He also outlines the six epochs before we reach The Singularity, where technology becomes more advanced than the human brain.  At that point, technology will expand explosively, eventually allowing us to reach into space.

Respond:  The first 50 pages of this book are dense, I will not deny that it is an extremely dense and a bit dry of a read.  When he explains the Six Epochs, it’s very interesting to see what Kurzweil predicts will occur over the next thirty-some years.  Overall, I think this first part needs to be dry, because it gives the reader a very solid foundation for understanding the rest of his book.

Relate:  I can relate to these first 50 pages because it serves as an introduction to the whole concept of The Singularity.  While it is hard to read, the graphs are easy to understand and his explanations, while long, make logical sense.  I hope that later on, he does not go into the extremely long explanations.  All in all, I liked this part a lot.

Pages 50- 100 of The Singularity is Near:

Retell:  In the second 50 pages of Kurzweil’s book, Kurzweil goes more into the actual data backing up his claims.  Where the first 50 pages he outlines what he’s will speak about, the second 50 pages is where he brings several different graphs full of information into play.  The first of these is a series of graphs where it shows technology doubling in power while halving in price, starting in the 70’s or so and continuing to the time of writing and beyond.  He also shows an immensely interesting graph of how close computers are to having more computing power than the brain by the year 2020, with computers being more powerful than all human brains by the year 2040-2050.

Respond:  These 50 pages are much easier to understand than the first 50, since instead of a wall of text, it is a paragraph or two, backed up by a nice graph which he explains.  I learned a lot from these pages, especially on how, specifically, technology is going to grown in the next few decades.  It’s extremely interesting to see Kurzweil’s predictions about how computers will, within the next 50 years be more powerful than a human brain.

Relate:  These 50 pages are easy to relate to because they show trends that I have already noticed, such as the adoption of the cell phone and of the Internet.  I can also relate to several other graphs inside of this,  such as the halfving of technology price and the doubling of power