Here it is!
The Workings of the Singularity and Its Possibilities
The Singularity. What once was a word describing the center of a black hole now is being used by prominent futurists and scientists around the world. The point where technology becomes so advanced that it becomes smarter than humans and propels humankind into a new age of unforeseen growth. Two of the most prominent scientists in this field are Vernor Vinge and Raymond Kurzweil. Vernor Vinge was one of the original creators of the theory, he has been working on the ideas of the singularity for decades now. Raymond Kurzweil, on the other hand, has popularized it, most prominently with his exposure of it in his tome The Singularity Is Near and the recent cover article in February 2011’s TIME magazine. Countless articles pertaining to the singularity exists around the internet, but there are a sparse few that address the main questions most people have about the singularity.
The first of these is exactly how the singularity will occur. Many people reading into the singularity get the impression that it will just suddenly occur in the future (2030 or 2045, depending on the author). What most fail to realize is that the authors of the singularity have come up with these dates thanks to a law called The Law of Accelerating Returns. What this states is that the more advanced technology gets, the faster more progress will occur. It’s a positive feedback cycle, which will lead to “…doubling the rate of progress every decade, we’ll see a century of progress–at today’s rate–in only 25 calendar years”(Kurzweil). Technology is expanding exponentially, so it progresses faster and faster every passing day. Due to this growth rate, which will only increase, a time where we can create smarter-than-human intelligence is soon to come upon us. Even after understanding this, however, many will still have many questions about the singularity.
These questions can range from what exactly is the singularity, why hasn’t it happened yet, and the signs that show that it’s coming. Vernor Vinge, one of the most prominent scientists in the field, states that the singularity occurs when “…humans, using technology, will be able to create, or become, creatures of superhuman intelligence”(Wolens). He goes on to state that it will change humanity forever once it occurs, it will become the beginning of a new era. He states that the singularity couldn’t have happened until this moment in time – humans have not had access to the technology that we have now. He states that the singularity is indeed coming, in the future, but it is slowly approaching. Some of the symptoms people can watch out for are discussed, Vinge says that “…if you notice more and more substitution for using fragments of human cognition in the outside world — if human occupational responsibility becomes more and more automated in areas involving judgment that haven’t yet been automated” (Wolens). So as technology becomes a more and more vital part of life, the singularity will continue to progress.
Even though large amounts of scientific evidence has been demonstrated in the occurrence of the singularity, the elephant in the room is the question “What if the Singularity doesn’t happen?” This is a legitimate question that deserves much attention. It’s been asked to, as many other questions have been, to none other than Vernor Vinge. His views on it are very interesting and deserve a look into. He states that if the singularity doesn’t occur, several stages will progress. The first of these is the stagnation of technology – possibly caused by “Spectacular failures in large, total automation projects. (Human flight controllers occasionally run aircraft into each other; a bug in a fully automatic system could bring a dozen aircraft to the same point in space and time)” (Vinge), which leads to the abandonment of the progression of technology. He calls such a time the “Age of Failed Dreams”. He addresses the fact that this is in a peaceful world- we still have a chance for Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) to occur, most likely in the form of a nuclear conflict. He hopes this isn’t the case, and points to another idea: The Golden Age of humanity. This would be where the Internet becomes even more powerful, so information is widely available, leading to a smarter population. Then, the global population is smaller, leading to a higher quality of life. This scenario seems very likely – technology is progressing so much that out future is intertwined with it, the course of human fate is forever changed by it.
The Singularity is more than just an idea, a theory: It’s a way of thinking about the future. It’s knowing that technology is going to become even more powerful and integrated with humanity, and it will change history forever. The information is widely available, researching the prominent figures such as Kurzweil and Vinge will lead to a wealth of information in the form of data and predictions about the future. The future is now. Just yesterday, an article was published that had researchers prove teleportation is possible. A decade ago, the Internet was used quite a bit, however, compare it to today. The lowered cost of technology and advancements have made connecting with people all around the world not only possible, but easy. The Singularity is coming, and it will change the world forever.
